Wow, what a night! Election after-event wrapup.
I just got back from the Harry Mitchell campaign party and I am exhausted! My voice is gone, but I had a great time cheering on Harry and our other candidates with like-minded folks, tonight.
As most of you have seen the returns, or can check them out online here, I won't belabor the number. However, I do want to share some impressions of the evening.
1. The excitement was very, very positive as Ed Ableser and David Schapira took BOTH seats in LD17, booting Laura Knaperek to the curb. Said one attendee: "In some ways, the biggest treat for me tonight is that Laura Knaperek is now OUT of Tempe politics. Dems picked up an important State House seat here.
2. The VA Senate numbers had many of us on the edge of our seats (and sometimes out of them). It looked grim for Webb with 95% of the precincts in, but it appears that he has edged Allen by a few thousand votes with 98% in. We don't know how this one will end, since there are absentee votes yet to be counted, as well as those remaining 2% of precincts (which we believe is in Webb-rich territory). But there were a lot of people who cheered loudly to see Webb edging Felix Macaca.
3. Judging by the sound of the loudest cheers when the number showed he lost, Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum may well be the least popular U.S. Senator among AZ CD-5 Democrats. His loss by a very wide margin tonight was a cause of significant delight to many of the attendees.
4. It appears that, with 100% of the vote in, Donna Gratehouse trailed Huppenthal by fewer than 2000 votes (48%-52%, not counting absentee ballots yet). Consider that this is a first-time, unknown candidate with a 12-14% voter registration disadvantage going up against an entrenched, veteran incumbent with a massive registration advantage. And it appears she came within 2% of unseating him! Though not a victory, this is an OUTSTANDING performance!
It just goes to show how many Republicans are fed up with Huppenthal and thought Donna was the better choice, to see so many of them crossing the aisle. I predict (and hope) we'll see Donna running again in two years and I'll be more than happy to work on her campaign. Huppenthal, it looks like your days in office are numbered.
5. Folks weren't terribly surprised that Pederson didn't beat Kyl, given the polling trends recently. But a few people I talked to were extremely complimentary of the way he had grown as a candidate and the good he did for the ticket. Thank you, Jim, for running and for your significant sacrifices for your campaign.
6. When Harry Mitchell's numbers showed, at 98% precincts reporting, an advantage of 53% to 44% over Hayworth, the sound in the room was deafening. And I felt like hugging someone!
Harry's demeanor as he spoke was very polite, considerate of his volunteers and family, and cautiously optimistic. Of course, many absentee ballots remain to be counted. If they break hard for Hayworth, the numbers could flip. But that would require a VERY lopsided break for JD, and it seems unlikely. JD is refusing to concede, because there's still a chance. Though the numbers will tighten after counting absentee ballots, I'm also cautiously optimistic that Mitchell has won this race.
The joy at Harry's good showing was palpable, and chants of "Harry! Harry!" thundered in the room at various times.
7. It was neat to meet so many of my readers and fellow bloggers tonight! Being a microcelebrity is kind of new to me. But I will say this: when strangers come up to you and say "Hey, I read your blog!" and you get to know them, it's a very good feeling. Like finding a member of your extended family!
Other AZ bloggers present included Zelph nd Tim O. from AZNetRoots, Tim Wilson, Craig at Random Musings and Dave Wells. It was great to meet my colleagues on the blogosphere and it felt like there was a real sense of cameraderie. Compared to the reporters from the mainstream media, I bet we had a LOT more fun tonight! :)
8. Slade Mead was our announcer for the evening, and I got a chance to ask him about some impressions afterward. Slade said he, like many, remained "guardedly optimmistic" about where Harry Mitchell was, pending counting the absentee ballots. But, he said, "if Harry does win, we'll be sending a true statesman to Washington, and not just a 'politician'."
After we chatted about various other state races, I asked Slade if he saw himself running for office again in the next 2-4 years. He said it didn't seem likely at this point, citing family responsibilities that make a full-time campaign challenging. I understand and support his position, but would encourage him, if he and his family think it's feasible, to remain active in LD20, where his service and help has been significant over the years.
I also shared with Slade how his switching to the Democratic party was a significant factor in inspiring me to finally make a similar switch. We discussed the events leading up to his party shift, including participation in the Republican LD20 meetings. Frankly, it sounds like his gifts and talents are far more appreciated now than they were back then.
9. When it was clear that Proposition 107 - the Gay Marriage Ban - failed by a narrow margin, many people in the room were pleasantly surprised. It makes the first time that any state in our country has rejected such an amendment. That Arizona is the first state to do so is a seismic event in the shifting political dynamics here.
10. Napolitano's defeat of Munsil by about 20 percentage points was seen as a clear mandate for the Governor's next four years. It will be impossible for the State Legislature to make the argument that she's out of the mainstream. Clearly, she is very popular, widely supported and the Lege will need to take that into consideration if they plan to use trash legislation to play more electoral games in the coming few years.
11. Finally, some random quotes I picked up from attendees:
Regarding Harry's being ahead by 9%: "I can't quite believe it's true - that decency won out. That the good guy won. I'm just so thrilled for Harry."
"Sometimes good things happen to good people."
"Tonight, we watched the mechanism of democracy envisioned by the Founding Fathers at the Constitutional Convention."
"I'm thinking Harry's party is more exciting than JD's, right now."
"It's just so cool to be a Democrat in this election."
"Good always prevails."
"I'm cautiously optimistic."
"Picking up a few more in the State House is going to be good for the Governor - it'll help make a House she can work with."
"So much for the Republicans' veto-proof majority!"
"This was a lot of fun!"
I'll post more tomorrow to follow up on numbers as they become finalized. Some of them, such as the Mitchell race, won't be final perhaps for days, as long as the absentee ballots take to count. And if it's close, expect recounts and challenges. So it may be some time before we have the final numbers. It could still go either way right now, but I'd rather be where Harry is than where JD is.
Finally, just a parting thought to all the folks I met tonight: It was a blast - thanks for making it such a great night!
As most of you have seen the returns, or can check them out online here, I won't belabor the number. However, I do want to share some impressions of the evening.
1. The excitement was very, very positive as Ed Ableser and David Schapira took BOTH seats in LD17, booting Laura Knaperek to the curb. Said one attendee: "In some ways, the biggest treat for me tonight is that Laura Knaperek is now OUT of Tempe politics. Dems picked up an important State House seat here.
2. The VA Senate numbers had many of us on the edge of our seats (and sometimes out of them). It looked grim for Webb with 95% of the precincts in, but it appears that he has edged Allen by a few thousand votes with 98% in. We don't know how this one will end, since there are absentee votes yet to be counted, as well as those remaining 2% of precincts (which we believe is in Webb-rich territory). But there were a lot of people who cheered loudly to see Webb edging Felix Macaca.
3. Judging by the sound of the loudest cheers when the number showed he lost, Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum may well be the least popular U.S. Senator among AZ CD-5 Democrats. His loss by a very wide margin tonight was a cause of significant delight to many of the attendees.
4. It appears that, with 100% of the vote in, Donna Gratehouse trailed Huppenthal by fewer than 2000 votes (48%-52%, not counting absentee ballots yet). Consider that this is a first-time, unknown candidate with a 12-14% voter registration disadvantage going up against an entrenched, veteran incumbent with a massive registration advantage. And it appears she came within 2% of unseating him! Though not a victory, this is an OUTSTANDING performance!
It just goes to show how many Republicans are fed up with Huppenthal and thought Donna was the better choice, to see so many of them crossing the aisle. I predict (and hope) we'll see Donna running again in two years and I'll be more than happy to work on her campaign. Huppenthal, it looks like your days in office are numbered.
5. Folks weren't terribly surprised that Pederson didn't beat Kyl, given the polling trends recently. But a few people I talked to were extremely complimentary of the way he had grown as a candidate and the good he did for the ticket. Thank you, Jim, for running and for your significant sacrifices for your campaign.
6. When Harry Mitchell's numbers showed, at 98% precincts reporting, an advantage of 53% to 44% over Hayworth, the sound in the room was deafening. And I felt like hugging someone!
Harry's demeanor as he spoke was very polite, considerate of his volunteers and family, and cautiously optimistic. Of course, many absentee ballots remain to be counted. If they break hard for Hayworth, the numbers could flip. But that would require a VERY lopsided break for JD, and it seems unlikely. JD is refusing to concede, because there's still a chance. Though the numbers will tighten after counting absentee ballots, I'm also cautiously optimistic that Mitchell has won this race.
The joy at Harry's good showing was palpable, and chants of "Harry! Harry!" thundered in the room at various times.
7. It was neat to meet so many of my readers and fellow bloggers tonight! Being a microcelebrity is kind of new to me. But I will say this: when strangers come up to you and say "Hey, I read your blog!" and you get to know them, it's a very good feeling. Like finding a member of your extended family!
Other AZ bloggers present included Zelph nd Tim O. from AZNetRoots, Tim Wilson, Craig at Random Musings and Dave Wells. It was great to meet my colleagues on the blogosphere and it felt like there was a real sense of cameraderie. Compared to the reporters from the mainstream media, I bet we had a LOT more fun tonight! :)
8. Slade Mead was our announcer for the evening, and I got a chance to ask him about some impressions afterward. Slade said he, like many, remained "guardedly optimmistic" about where Harry Mitchell was, pending counting the absentee ballots. But, he said, "if Harry does win, we'll be sending a true statesman to Washington, and not just a 'politician'."
After we chatted about various other state races, I asked Slade if he saw himself running for office again in the next 2-4 years. He said it didn't seem likely at this point, citing family responsibilities that make a full-time campaign challenging. I understand and support his position, but would encourage him, if he and his family think it's feasible, to remain active in LD20, where his service and help has been significant over the years.
I also shared with Slade how his switching to the Democratic party was a significant factor in inspiring me to finally make a similar switch. We discussed the events leading up to his party shift, including participation in the Republican LD20 meetings. Frankly, it sounds like his gifts and talents are far more appreciated now than they were back then.
9. When it was clear that Proposition 107 - the Gay Marriage Ban - failed by a narrow margin, many people in the room were pleasantly surprised. It makes the first time that any state in our country has rejected such an amendment. That Arizona is the first state to do so is a seismic event in the shifting political dynamics here.
10. Napolitano's defeat of Munsil by about 20 percentage points was seen as a clear mandate for the Governor's next four years. It will be impossible for the State Legislature to make the argument that she's out of the mainstream. Clearly, she is very popular, widely supported and the Lege will need to take that into consideration if they plan to use trash legislation to play more electoral games in the coming few years.
11. Finally, some random quotes I picked up from attendees:
Regarding Harry's being ahead by 9%: "I can't quite believe it's true - that decency won out. That the good guy won. I'm just so thrilled for Harry."
"Sometimes good things happen to good people."
"Tonight, we watched the mechanism of democracy envisioned by the Founding Fathers at the Constitutional Convention."
"I'm thinking Harry's party is more exciting than JD's, right now."
"It's just so cool to be a Democrat in this election."
"Good always prevails."
"I'm cautiously optimistic."
"Picking up a few more in the State House is going to be good for the Governor - it'll help make a House she can work with."
"So much for the Republicans' veto-proof majority!"
"This was a lot of fun!"
I'll post more tomorrow to follow up on numbers as they become finalized. Some of them, such as the Mitchell race, won't be final perhaps for days, as long as the absentee ballots take to count. And if it's close, expect recounts and challenges. So it may be some time before we have the final numbers. It could still go either way right now, but I'd rather be where Harry is than where JD is.
Finally, just a parting thought to all the folks I met tonight: It was a blast - thanks for making it such a great night!
posted by Geo at 12:29 AM
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