Predictions, results and what it means for Arizona

Literally dozens of posts in the Arizona blogs in the past 24 hours related to the elections. Way too much to collate for you, here. As a good example, though, check out this post on Daniel's News and Views where he assesses what it all means for our state. Long story short: Arizona is officially purple and trending progressive.

I've given my own predictions earlier this week, so I'll do a little recap. Here's how my predictions stacked up (predictions first, followed by results).

1. LD20 - Toss up, with no clear leader. Gratehouse will do far better than Dem registration percentage.

Result: Gratehouse made 48% to Huppenthal's 52%. Prediction was accurate.


2. CD-5 - Harry Mitchell will beat Hayworth by a 2-4 point margin.

Result: Mitchell wins 50% to 46%. Prediction was accurate.


3. AZ Governor - Napolitano (D) will beat Munsil (R) by a 20-22 point margin.

Result: Napolitano wins 61% to 37%, a 24 point margin. Prediction was pretty accurate!


4. AZ Senate - Kyl (R) will beat Pederson (D) with a 6-8 point margin.

Result: Kyl wins 55% to 42%. Kyl wins (as predicted) by 13% (larger than expected margin).


5. Proposition 107, the Gay Marriage Amendment, will pass.

Result: Prop 107 failed by a narrow margin! This is a surprise, and it makes Arizona the first state in the nation to reject such an amendment.


6. Proposition 202, the Minimum Wage Amendment, will pass.

Result: Passed by wide margin, as predicted.


7. Democrats will gain 20-22 seats in the US House of Representatives to take control of the House.

Result: Dems have taken control of the House (as predicted), picking up 28 seats (slightly higher than predicted).

8. Democrats will gain 5 seats in the US Senate to tie, with Cheney casting the tie-breaker.

Result: Dems appear to have gained 4 seats, with two still in question (MT and VA). However, it appears that those two will also go Dem. So the Dems will pick up one more than predicted, to take control of Senate.

9. VA Senate - Webb (D) will beat Allen (R).

Result: not called yet, but it apppears that this prediction is accurate.

10. MT Senate - Tester (D) will beat Burns (R).

Result: not called yet, but it apppears that this prediction is accurate.

11. CT Senate - Lieberman (Con-Lie) will beat Lamont (D).

Result: prediction accurate.

12. PA Senate - Casey (D) beats Santorum (R).

Result: prediction accurate.

13. TN Senate - Corker (R) beats Ford (D).

Result: prediction accurate.

14. RI Senate - Whitehouse (D) beats Chafee (R).

Result: prediction accurate.

15. OH Senate = Brown (D) beats Dewine (R).

Result: prediction accurate.

16. NJ Senate - Menendez (D) beats Kean (R).

Result: prediction accurate.

In all, of 16 predictions, I only missed one, outright (having misgauged the Prop107 results by a few percent). A few predictions were accurate, but I was off on the magnitude (I'll count those as generally accurate). On the rest, I got 'em right. In all, that's 15 out of 16 correct!