Geo's electoral predictions - Nov. 2006
It seems that everyone in the media is making their predictions of the upcoming elections, so I thought I'd share mine, too.
First, there are too many factors weighing on these races to make me very dogmatic about some of them. To name a few such factors:
1. Growing discontent with Republican leadership in Congress and the administration of GWB.
2. Lower Republican excitement about voting, as opposed to Dem voters.
3. Republicans, including many Evangelical Christians, leaving the Rwepublican party in large numbers (about 1 in 6) over the past two years.
4. The Democratic "wave" cresting over the midterm elections.
5. The strength of the much vaunted Republican "72 Hour" get out the vote (GOTV) program.
6. Larger than average Dem GOTV effort.
7. Bush's coattails are nonexistent. Gov. Napolitano's coattails are strong.
8. Record numbers of early voters; voter suppression efforts; possible voter fraud.
9. Controversial and polarizing issues in play: gay marriage ban, stem cell research, minimum wage, immigration, etc...
The result is that the polls could be off significantly in reflecting how people will actually vote on November 7th.
Here are my picks, nevertheless:
1. LD20 - Toss up. State district races are sometimes the hardest to predict. We've seen no polling on this race, and relatively little media. Plus, I've been a volunteer, so my perspective is almost certainly skewed by my participation. So it's hard to say at all where things stand.
That said, I do think Donna Gratehouse will far outperform general expectations against John Huppenthal. As I have canvassed and phoned, among Democrats I've noted a significant excitement about these elections. And among Independents, I've detected a trend toward Gratehouse. How much that will be is all but impossible to say, though.
Gratehouse has run a solid campaign and is liked by many voters, while many have become discontented with Huppenthal and Republicans in general. Will Donna get enough to win? I hope so, but she will need your vote. If you haven't voted yet, PLEASE VOTE for Donna Gratehouse for AZ State Senate.
2. CD-5 - I've volunteered for this campaign, too, but I have much more feedback on the dynamic of this race that I feel more confident in calling this one: Harry Mitchell will beat Hayworth by a 2-4 point margin. But again, ONLY if you GO VOTE for Harry Mitchell, PLEASE!
3. AZ Governor - Napolitano (D) will beat Munsil (R) by a 20-22 point margin.
4. AZ Senate - Kyl (R) will beat Pederson (D) with a 6-8 point margin.
5. Proposition 107, the Gay Marriage Amendment, will pass.
6. Proposition 202, the Minimum Wage Amendment, will pass.
7. Democrats will gain 20-22 seats in the US House of Representatives to take control of the House.
8. Democrats will gain 5 seats in the US Senate to tie, with Cheney casting the tie-breaker.
9. VA Senate - Webb (D) will beat Allen (R).
10. MT Senate - Tester (D) will beat Burns (R).
11. CT Senate - Lieberman (Con-Lie) will beat Lamont (D).
12. PA Senate - Casey (D) beats Santorum (R).
13. TN Senate - Corker (R) beats Ford (D).
14. RI Senate - Whitehouse (D) beats Chafee (R).
15. OH Senate = Brown (D) beats Dewine (R).
16. NJ Senate - Menendez (D) beats Kean (R).
Those are my predictions, worth the paper they're printed on!
We'll see how close I was later this week. And no gloating if I get them wrong! :)
First, there are too many factors weighing on these races to make me very dogmatic about some of them. To name a few such factors:
1. Growing discontent with Republican leadership in Congress and the administration of GWB.
2. Lower Republican excitement about voting, as opposed to Dem voters.
3. Republicans, including many Evangelical Christians, leaving the Rwepublican party in large numbers (about 1 in 6) over the past two years.
4. The Democratic "wave" cresting over the midterm elections.
5. The strength of the much vaunted Republican "72 Hour" get out the vote (GOTV) program.
6. Larger than average Dem GOTV effort.
7. Bush's coattails are nonexistent. Gov. Napolitano's coattails are strong.
8. Record numbers of early voters; voter suppression efforts; possible voter fraud.
9. Controversial and polarizing issues in play: gay marriage ban, stem cell research, minimum wage, immigration, etc...
The result is that the polls could be off significantly in reflecting how people will actually vote on November 7th.
Here are my picks, nevertheless:
1. LD20 - Toss up. State district races are sometimes the hardest to predict. We've seen no polling on this race, and relatively little media. Plus, I've been a volunteer, so my perspective is almost certainly skewed by my participation. So it's hard to say at all where things stand.
That said, I do think Donna Gratehouse will far outperform general expectations against John Huppenthal. As I have canvassed and phoned, among Democrats I've noted a significant excitement about these elections. And among Independents, I've detected a trend toward Gratehouse. How much that will be is all but impossible to say, though.
Gratehouse has run a solid campaign and is liked by many voters, while many have become discontented with Huppenthal and Republicans in general. Will Donna get enough to win? I hope so, but she will need your vote. If you haven't voted yet, PLEASE VOTE for Donna Gratehouse for AZ State Senate.
2. CD-5 - I've volunteered for this campaign, too, but I have much more feedback on the dynamic of this race that I feel more confident in calling this one: Harry Mitchell will beat Hayworth by a 2-4 point margin. But again, ONLY if you GO VOTE for Harry Mitchell, PLEASE!
3. AZ Governor - Napolitano (D) will beat Munsil (R) by a 20-22 point margin.
4. AZ Senate - Kyl (R) will beat Pederson (D) with a 6-8 point margin.
5. Proposition 107, the Gay Marriage Amendment, will pass.
6. Proposition 202, the Minimum Wage Amendment, will pass.
7. Democrats will gain 20-22 seats in the US House of Representatives to take control of the House.
8. Democrats will gain 5 seats in the US Senate to tie, with Cheney casting the tie-breaker.
9. VA Senate - Webb (D) will beat Allen (R).
10. MT Senate - Tester (D) will beat Burns (R).
11. CT Senate - Lieberman (Con-Lie) will beat Lamont (D).
12. PA Senate - Casey (D) beats Santorum (R).
13. TN Senate - Corker (R) beats Ford (D).
14. RI Senate - Whitehouse (D) beats Chafee (R).
15. OH Senate = Brown (D) beats Dewine (R).
16. NJ Senate - Menendez (D) beats Kean (R).
Those are my predictions, worth the paper they're printed on!
We'll see how close I was later this week. And no gloating if I get them wrong! :)
posted by Geo at 5:36 PM
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