Clinton's visit to Tempe and other Mitchell developments

A long post, rather than several separate ones, today. Ten links below, some on Clinton's visit to Tempe today to support Harry Mitchell, followed by some related to Harry Mitchell's surge in the race. I'm feeling pretty good about Harry Mitchell's likelihood of victory!

First, I sadly had other obligations this afternoon, so wasn't able to make the Clinton appearance for Harry Mitchell at ASU today. However, a number of other folks were able to go (about 2000 from the reports I've read) and it didn't disappoint.

Here's a round-up on after action reports from other folks who were able to go:

1. cpmaz at Random Musings

Harry Mitchell had the crowd behind him all the way (other than a few 80's retro neo-preppies there to support Hayworth, but more about them later). He received the 2nd loudest cheers behind President Clinton. (Actually, they were the 3rd loudest, behind someone who wasn't there - Governor Napolitano. The smartest thing JD Hayworth has done, win or lose this time around, is NOT go after the Governorship. She'd would have smoked his ass.)

...Overall, it was a great day.

The Mitchell campaign signed up lots of volunteers for this weekend's big GOTV push.

The audience was revved up and enthusiastic.

The turnout was great, especially for an event pulled off on such short notice.

2. stephen wells on Daily Kos

Excellent speech, a good line on Iraq ("Stop and Think is not cut-and-run"), and good advice to the activists about pushing on moderate Republicans to vote Democratic in this election.

He dwelt a lot on the national change of mood, did a roll-call of veterans running Democratic nationwide, made fun of Republican election ads, put a lot of emphasis on balancing the budget - the importance of getting fiscal conservatives to vote Democratic if they want to control the deficit, a useful campaign meme. Turnout of maybe a couple of thousand people at a rough estimate, good considering the extremely short notice with which the event was organised, campus Democrats only heard about it yesterday.

And from a comment on the Kos thread from afguy08:

Thanks from a volunteer

I'm currently sitting at a Harry Mitchell office volunteering by answering the phones while everyone else is celebrating at My Big Fat Greek Resturant on Mill in Tempe. Someone had to stay back to man the office, and I volunteered for it. I missed the event entirely, so I'm really glad to hear it went well.

Thanks to everyone who has supported the campaign so far. Remember, we've got just five days left and need all the help we can get to kick JD Hayworth out of office and put Harry Mitchell into Congress!

3. EV Trib's write-up on the Clinton event.



And here are some other developments in the Mitchell race:

4. CQ Politics changes AZ-5 race to "Toss-Up"

5th District: Six-term incumbent Hayworth — a boisterous former sportscaster whose outspoken conservatism stood out even in the historic Republican freshman Class of 1994 — is embroiled in his toughest race in at least eight years.

Democrats have contended since the pre-2002 redistricting that the 5th District, which takes in all of Scottsdale and Tempe and slivers of Phoenix and Mesa, is a viable takeover target: Bush in 2004 held the same 54 percent to 45 percent edge over Democrat John Kerry as he had in the reputedly more competitive 1st District. But they had yet to present a viable challenger to Hayworth, who won his 2004 race by 21 points.

That changed significantly this year, though, when Democrats succeeded in recruiting Harry Mitchell — a state senator and briefly chairman of the state Democratic Party, who was so popular in his past role as mayor of Tempe that a statue of him was installed outside City Hall.

Yet even with Mitchell’s potential as a challenger, the Arizona Republic focused its endorsement editorial on criticizing what the paper described as the incumbent’s abrasive partisanship.

“J.D. Hayworth is a bully,” the Oct. 27 editorial states. “He may not yet have reached the point where you can’t take him anywhere, but you certainly can’t take him to a calm, civil discussion.”

“The paper is conservative,” said Seth Scott, Mitchell’s campaign spokesman. “When a moderate Democrat can earn an endorsement, it means a lot to moderates and independents in our district.”

Personality clashes are not the only problems Hayworth faces, though. He has been shadowed throughout the campaign by questions about the sizable campaign donations he received in the past from now-convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates, though he has strongly denied any ethical misconduct in exchange for those donations.

A recent poll conducted by the SurveyUSA organization showed Mitchell with a 3 percentage-point lead over Hayworth. Other polls show the race nearly neck-and-neck. [Ed.: actually, it was a 2-point lead. - Geo.]

5. Christian Science Monitor wonders if Libertarian Severin's candidacy could sway the race to Mitchell.

In an unexpectedly close race in Arizona's Fifth District, Libertarian Warren Severin could sway the race between Democratic challenger Harry Mitchell and embattled incumbent Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

"There's a lot of dissatisfaction, obviously, among Libertarian voters among the Republicans, but not much enthusiasm for Democrats," says David Boaz, executive vice president of the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington. In races such as Arizona's Fifth, "it makes it hard to figure out who [the Libertarian candidate] is hurting."

6. Larry Sabato predicts Mitchell will win:

AZ-05 - Toss-up - Harry Mitchell (D) will unseat Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R).

And the following three links are courtesy of AZCongressWatch...

7. The Rothenberg Report changes AZ-5 race to "Toss-up/Tilt Democratic".

8. State Press endorses Mitchell.

Opinions: Who do we like best?

House of Representatives: Harry Mitchell. Like Napolitano, Mitchell has shown himself to be much better at working to serve a broad constituency than his opponent, the incumbent J.D. Hayworth.

Where Hayworth has spent his time in Congress as something of a firebrand, Mitchell has spent his political career building alliances at the state and local level.

In interviews with the Arizona Student Voter Initiative, Mitchell also demonstrated at least some understanding of the financial difficulties potentially facing Arizona students. Hayworth, however, was only able to talk about how he helped students get better loans - without showing any knowledge of just how much money students often need to borrow.

(And I won't even quibble over the bad grammar in the headline.)

9. Mitchell and Napolitano tour Scottsdale Senior Center

“This is just (Mitchell) and the governor going through to talk to some seniors,” Mitchell spokesman Seth Scott said. “The city was concerned about it being a rally type of event and we assured them that’s not what we are doing.”

10. And one more article, from the San Francisco Chronicle, notes that Hayworth's newfound, fire-breathing stance on immigration seems to be backfiring on him.