Can this be real: Pederson beating Kyl in early voting?

I don't normally cover the Kyl-Pederson race, because there are tons of people out there who do and I prefer to focus more on the local races that don't get quite as much statewide or national attention. However, some breaking news on early voting in the Senate race was such a stunner that I have to share it with you.

Shooting in the Dark points us to AZ CongressWatch, who points us to this incredible report by Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. Harstad polled 734 likely AZ voters between Oct 29 and 31 and found that fully 30% of them had already voted in the election by early ballots. This suggests that, as of today, a third of the votes have already been cast in the election.

What Harstad found from all of those folks who HAVE already voted - in their multiple polls - is quite astonishing:

In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused.

This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents.

Furthermore, our latest tracking poll shows that Jim Pederson’s margin among early voters is growing as we get closer to the election and as this bloc of early voters expands to virtually one-third of the electorate.

This early Pederson lead is possibly a harbinger not only of Democratic enthusiasm and enhanced organization in Arizona, but also of the Democratic wave that seems to be sweeping across the nation.

It also suggests that the Arizona Senate race is closer than it seems to be and could go right down to the wire if undecideds traditionally break heavily for the lesser-known challenger against the incumbent – especially in an election that is trending strongly against the party in power.

Many of us who have been following the Pederson race have, somewhere in the backs of our minds, held out hope that Pederson would be able to unseat Kyl. But we really haven't thought it likely. Kyl is an entrenched incumbent, Pederson didn't appear to be all that charismatic, and the polls weren't trending his way until recently.

However, we've seen Pederson grow significantly as a campaigner (I saw him in an interview last night and he was superb). He has narrowed the gap in the polls to the high single digits. And there has been this wave that everyone's been talking about.

But still - I retained a large degree of skepticism that Pederson would be able to do it.

Now, looking at the results of this study on early voters, I begin to wonder if I haven't underestimated Pederson as well as the voter discontent with the incumbenct Republicans. If, indeed, the Harstad figures are reflective of reality, then we could well be looking at seeing a generally unexpected victory in the Senate race that might well give the Democrats control of the Senate as well as the House.

Will undecideds break for Pederson? Will the GOTV be sufficient? Has Pederson peaked too late or is he hitting his stride at just the right time? Time will tell, of course. But these numbers, while somewhat straining credibility, nevertheless cause hope to bloom!

Update: As I suspected, other polls are showing this is extremely improbable. SUSA's latest poll shows Kyl leads Pederson 53-40.