New Poll: Mitchell closes gap with Hayworth
From the Phoenix Business Journal today, this article:
Only a five percent gap, with the incumbent only at 50%? Sounds like very dangerous waters for Hayworth. Mitchell's barely even begun his campaign and already the race is close enough that a 3% shift would have him winning.
And given the abysmal behavior of the Republicans lately, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Republicans making a moral choice to cross the aisle and vote for Harry Mitchell as the more qualified, superior candidate.
Donate to Mitchell's campaign here.
Volunteer here.
[Update (May 10): The poll is here. What's even more encouraging is that Independents favor Mitchell and Repub-to-Indy shifting is on the rise in AZ. Also, the poll doesn't gauge likely voters, so if there is a low Repub turnout because of party dissatisfaction, it could help Mitchell further.]
A new poll shows former Tempe mayor Harry Mitchell running close to Scottsdale Congressman J.D. Hayworth in a key U.S. House race.Go Harry Mitchell!!
A poll by SurveyUSA show[s] Hayworth, a Republican, leading Mitchell, a Democrat, by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin.
... The Kyl-Pederson and Hayworth-Mitchell contests could be key to which party controls Congress next year.
Democrats are also hoping that Hayworth's ties to the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal will hurt him in the November elections. Hayworth received some campaign money from Abramoff and his clients but has denied any wrongdoing and donated direct donations from Abramoff to charity. Abramoff and several associates pleaded guilty to fraud charges related to under the table fees taken from Indian tribes with casino issues.
Only a five percent gap, with the incumbent only at 50%? Sounds like very dangerous waters for Hayworth. Mitchell's barely even begun his campaign and already the race is close enough that a 3% shift would have him winning.
And given the abysmal behavior of the Republicans lately, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Republicans making a moral choice to cross the aisle and vote for Harry Mitchell as the more qualified, superior candidate.
Donate to Mitchell's campaign here.
Volunteer here.
[Update (May 10): The poll is here. What's even more encouraging is that Independents favor Mitchell and Repub-to-Indy shifting is on the rise in AZ. Also, the poll doesn't gauge likely voters, so if there is a low Repub turnout because of party dissatisfaction, it could help Mitchell further.]
posted by Geo at 1:09 PM
1 Comments:
From a comment I posted on AZ Congress Watch yesterday:
There’s only one poll I’m familiar with that came out before Mitchell joined the race. I believe it did show Mitchell with a slim lead.
However, different polling agencies use different method. They sample differently, some use registered voters, some use likely voters, etc. The different methodology can lead to significant variance.
In all cases, there is always a margin of error, depending upon the number of people polled. There were 600 polled in this one, which puts the 95% certainty MoE at 4.1%. The best polls have an MoE of a few percent.
What that means is that the first poll and this one could well have an overlapping area - for example, tied at about 48-48, which would still be supported by the results of both polls.
What’s exciting here for Mitchell supporters is that this poll reinforces the earlier one, and says Mitchell is very, very close to beating Hayworth already, and for an incumbent to have a challenger, this earlier in the race, is pretty significant.
What’s more, this new poll measures registered voters, not likelies. If there is any low voter turnout on the Repub side because of the national mood, then Mitchell is sitting pretty.
Also indicative is that, in this poll, Mitchell does significantly better among Indies than Hayworth. And with Repub-to-Indy switching continuing to be a factor, this alone could easily tip the scales in favor of Mitchell.
All told, though it’s still six months and anything can happen, Hayworth is not in good shape with these numbers and Mitchell has to be feeling encouraged.
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