Bob Schuster weighs in on Mitchell - Hayworth race

Columnist Bob Schuster considers the race for AZ-5 and says the prevailing political climate is not favorable to Hayworth, though his incumbency will make him difficult to beat:

Hayworth, of course, has the obvious incumbent's advantage in a district where Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats - 44 percent to 28 percent. But independents make up nearly all of that remaining 28 percent and presumably many, if not most, of those could go either way.

Then there's Mitchell, who's a veteran of both municipal and state politics. And he just stepped down as head of the state Democratic Party to devote his attention to the congressional race.

Clearly, Mitchell will try to take full advantage of public dissatisfaction with Congress. And that dissatisfaction runs deep. An ABC News/Washington Post Poll two weeks ago showed disapproval of Congress at a whopping 62 percent.

Furthermore, a CBS News Poll that same week showed even a majority of Republicans who were surveyed - 54 percent - disapproved of Congress' performance. And although 59 percent of Democrats registered disapproval, 68 percent of independents turned thumbs-down.

Now, this is remarkable, when you consider it. Independents register even greater disapproval of the Republican-led Congress than do Democrats! That's not a positive sign for the incumbent Hayworth.

Schuster notes that folks who were asked about their own representative tend to rate their politician somewhat higher. The interesting thing here is that there seems to be a bit of a disconnect between their own representative and the overall performance of Congress.

Concluding, Schuster suggests unseating the incumbent will be difficult:

From this vantage point, Mitchell's bid is a long shot, but not impossible. A lot can happen between now and November. And more than anything, it will be interesting to watch - especially if they meet in a debate format.

Hayworth is a good debater, true. But I've noticed that this is primarily due to a general gift of gab (some might call it bloviation) and a glossy telegenicity, rather than actually epousing sound, reasonable ideas. In contrast, Mitchell's reputation as a sound thinker is already well established. I would like to see them in a debate, too.